Shift in Burning Timings: A Possible Strategy to Avoid Detection?

Satellite Data Sheds Light on the Issue Amid Ongoing Debate Over Environmental Impact.

In a significant analysis of satellite data, experts have raised questions about the accuracy of fire counts and the true extent of crop residue burning in north-west India and Pakistan. The findings suggest that farmers might be intentionally altering their burning schedules to avoid detection by satellite monitoring systems, sparking doubts over the effectiveness of current mitigation strategies.

According to Hiren Jethva, a senior research scientist at NASA, satellite data shows localized puffs of smoke and clouds of smoke in geostationary satellite images capturing late afternoon fire activity. His observation points to the possibility that farmers may be timing their fires to coincide with periods when satellites are not actively monitoring. "The drastic downward trend in fire detection in NW India since 2022 but aerosol loading in the atmosphere has increased (or near stable)," Jethva wrote in a recent post on X.

Data from the GEO-KOMPSAT-2A satellite, launched by South Korea, shows that fire activity appeared to shift to late afternoon hours past NASA satellites' overpass time. This has raised suspicions about whether farmers were deliberately altering their stubble burning activities. Experts point out that intentionally avoiding NASA-NASA satellite overpass times could be one reason for the apparent decline in farm fires in some states.

Government data collected by India's Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) and other agencies shows a significant decrease in stubble burning incidents in Punjab and Haryana. However, despite these reductions, the concentration of aerosol particles, which contribute to air pollution, has remained largely unchanged over the past six to seven years, raising questions about the real effectiveness of these reductions.

Chandra Bhushan, CEO of iFOREST, pointed out that the decrease in reported farm fires belies a more complex reality. "According to government data, the number of farm fires decreased by 80-90% compared to 2020. However, the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), which measures the concentration of particulates in the atmosphere, has remained unchanged over Punjab and Haryana over the past six to seven years," Bhushan noted.

While some scientists dismiss claims that farmers are intentionally shifting their burning times as genuine reductions, others suggest a more nuanced approach to monitoring is needed. "Relying on the number of reported fires as a measure of the problem may not be accurate. A more accurate approach is to measure the total burnt area," Bhushan proposed.

The debate over crop residue burning in north-west India and Pakistan remains complex, with experts and officials holding differing views on the extent of the problem and the reliability of satellite data. As farmers continue to adapt their burning patterns, experts urge a closer examination of monitoring methods and more accurate analysis of environmental impact.