Shift in Burning Timings: A Possible Strategy to Avoid Detection?
The number of reported stubble fires has declined this year, but satellite data reveals no significant reduction in aerosol levels, sparking controversy over whether farmers are intentionally altering their burning schedules to avoid detection by satellite monitoring systems.
Discrepancies in Government Data and the Ongoing Debate
Despite a sharp decline in stubble burning incidents in Punjab, farm fires continued in other states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Delhi. While government data collected by the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) shows significant reductions in stubble burning, experts warn that relying on the number of reported fires is not an accurate measure of the problem.
Farm Fires on the Rise in Other States
Stubble burning has been a major contributor to air pollution in north-west India and Pakistan. Local officials have defended satellite data accuracy, stating that it captures incidents of stubble burning, including those that occur at night. Scientists from Punjab Agricultural University dismissed claims that farmers are intentionally shifting their burning times.
Local Officials Defend Satellite Data Accuracy
Punjab Pollution Control Board Chairman Adarshpal Vig stated, "Our data also has fire incidents at night. So, avoiding detection by satellites can be a figment of imagination of a few but not the reality."
Shift in Burning Timings: Experts' Concerns
Senior Research Scientist at NASA, Hiren Jethva, highlighted the possibility that farmers may be intentionally avoiding satellite overpasses between 1:30 pm to 2:00 pm IST. According to Jethva's analysis of GEO-KOMPSAT-2A satellite data, fire activity appears to shift to late afternoon hours past this period.
This raises questions about whether farmers are altering their burning patterns to avoid detection by satellites. Experts suggest that a more accurate approach is to measure the total burnt area rather than just counting reported fires.
To address these concerns, experts propose using India's geostationary satellites for more accurate monitoring. However, further investigation and improved data collection are crucial for addressing the environmental impact of crop residue burning in the region.
India Witnessing Drop in Stubble Burning Cases
Data from Punjab shows a sharp decline in stubble burning incidents between September 15 and November 17, with 8,404 cases reported in Punjab, compared to 33,082 during the same period last year. In Haryana, farm fires dropped from 2,031 in 2023 to 1,082 in 2024.
However, Chandra Bhushan, CEO of iFOREST, questions the accuracy of government data. "According to govt data, the number of farm fires decreased by 80–90% compared to 2020. However, the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), which measures the concentration of particulates in the atmosphere, has remained unchanged over Punjab and Haryana over the past six to seven years."
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