Satellite Data Reveals Shift in Burning Timings: Is It a Strategy to Avoid Detection?

In a surprising twist, satellite data has shown that farmers in north-west India and Pakistan may be altering their burning schedules to avoid detection by satellite monitoring systems.

Discrepancies between government data and the reality on the ground have sparked debate over the effectiveness of measures aimed at reducing crop residue burning. While the number of reported stubble fires has declined this year, experts are pointing out that farmers might be behind the scenes altering their burning times to circumvent detection.

Hiren Jethva, a senior research scientist at NASA, suggested that farmers may be intentionally avoiding satellite overpasses by timing their fires for periods when satellites are not actively monitoring the region. The observation was made after analyzing data from GEO-KOMPSAT 2A geostationary satellite images, which showed localized puffs/clouds of smoke in the late afternoon.

The NASA Aqua and Suomi-NPP satellites pass over India and Pakistan around 1:30 pm to 2:00 pm IST, but the GEO-KOMPSAT-2A satellite operates in a geostationary orbit and provides continuous monitoring every 10 minutes. Jethva's analysis of the latter satellite’s data revealed that fire activity appeared to shift to the late afternoon, a period after the NASA satellites had passed over.

Local officials have rejected claims that farmers are deliberately changing their burning patterns to avoid detection. However, some experts like Chandra Bhushan of iFOREST believe that relying on reported fire counts may not be an accurate measure of the problem and proposed using total burnt area as a more effective indicator.

The issue is further complicated by data showing no significant reduction in aerosol levels despite reported declines in stubble burning. The concentration of aerosol particles, which contribute to air pollution, has remained largely unchanged over the past six to seven years in Punjab and Haryana, raising questions about the real effectiveness of current reductions.

Other states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Delhi have seen a rise in farm fires compared to previous years. While certain regions, such as Punjab and Haryana, show improvements, the problem persists elsewhere, leading concerns about the overall impact of monitoring and mitigation strategies.