India to Experience Alarming TB Burden by 2040
Mumbai, India - A recent study published in PLOS Medicine has projected that India will face a massive tuberculosis (TB) burden between 2021 and 2040, with over 62 million new cases and 8.1 million deaths, resulting in a significant economic loss of US$146.4 billion.
According to the study's authors, inadequate funding and poor case detection rates have contributed to India's struggle to meet global TB reduction targets. Existing assessments fail to account for the impact of TB on productivity and economic growth, highlighting the need for more evidence-based strategies.
To address this challenge, researchers developed an integrated macroeconomic-health-demographic simulation model to predict potential returns on investment in TB treatment for India. The findings suggest that significant reductions in disease burden and economic impact are possible.
By achieving a case detection rate of 90%, India could reduce its clinical and demographic burdens by 75% to 89% and save US$120.2 billion in GDP losses. Developing a 95% effective pan-TB treatment regimen could further reduce the same burdens by 25% to 31% and save an additional US$35.3 billion.
The study's authors emphasize the importance of improving case detection rates, implementing more effective treatment regimens, and investing in TB control and treatment in India. They stressed that even revised treatment regimens can generate significant economic gains, with projections indicating US$28 billion in GDP savings.
India has been recognized as having the largest national TB burden globally, posing an imposing health and economic challenge to the country's public health systems and economy. The researchers' call for additional investment in TB control and treatment is crucial in reducing the suffering of TB patients while ensuring resource provision across other sectors of the Indian economy.
The study underscores the critical need for a timely and concerted response from policymakers, healthcare professionals, and stakeholders to address the impending TB crisis in India and ensure sustainable progress towards achieving global TB reduction targets.