Global Carbon Emissions Hit Record High in 2024, Threatening Paris Agreement Goals

A recent report by the journal Earth Systems Science Data reveals that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have reached a record high of 41.2 billion tons (37.4 billion metric tons) in 2024, a 0.8% increase from last year.

The findings, published on November 13, warn that if current trends continue, there is a 50% chance that global warming will consistently exceed the 1.5°C (2.7°F) target set by the Paris Agreement within roughly six years.

"This is alarming news," said Pierre Friedlingstein, lead author of the report and professor of climate science at Exeter University in the UK. "The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked."

According to the Global Carbon Budget report, which was released on the second day of the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP29) in Azerbaijan, human activities have emitted a total of 45.8 billion tons (41.6 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere so far this year from both fossil fuel combustion and land use changes.

Emissions are projected to increase by 0.9% for oil and gas, 2.4% for coal, in India by 4.6%, and in China by 0.2%, while decreasing in the European Union by 3.8% and the US by 0.6%.

While some actions have been taken to reduce fossil fuel use, such as the growth of renewable energy sources and electric cars, these incremental changes will not be enough to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

"We need a massive reduction in emissions," said Corinne Le Quéré, co-author of the report and professor of climate science at the University of East Anglia in the UK. "The latest data shows evidence of widespread climate action, but it's still not enough."

To avoid catastrophic consequences, world leaders meeting at COP29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions to give humanity a chance of staying below 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels.

As the clock ticks away, the scientific community is sounding the alarm. "Until we reach net zero CO2 emissions globally, world temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly severe impacts," said Friedlingstein.

The report highlights the urgent need for rapid decarbonization in a year that has witnessed unprecedented storms, floods, and unusually warm sea temperatures that could lead to ocean current collapse.

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasizes that untested solutions such as widespread carbon capture will be needed to achieve net-zero emissions.