Dalal Street Week Ahead: Tensions in Middle East to Decide India's Market Trend

In Desk

Jun 16, 2025 • 1 min read

Mumbai, June 15 - As global markets continue to face uncertainty and volatility, India's Dalal Street is bracing for a tumultuous week ahead. The benchmark Nifty 50 closed at 24,718.60 on Friday, down 0.68 per cent, weighed heavily by sharp declines in stocks such as HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, ITC, ICICI Bank, and SBI.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments, the Indian equity market witnessed heightened volatility last week due to escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. The conflict sparked a global risk-off sentiment, leading to a rally in safe-haven assets such as gold and US bonds.

Looking ahead, investors are expected to remain cautious amid premium valuations and geopolitical risks. The upcoming US Fed meeting on June 17-18 is likely to see interest rates remain unchanged, but the Fed's commentary and economic projections will be closely scrutinised for future policy cues.

Here are five key factors that will dictate the market trend in the coming week:

Israel-Iran News: Tensions in the Middle East have been escalating in recent days, raising concerns that the Israel-Iran conflict could intensify and broaden in scope.

US FOMC Meeting: The US Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged amid uncertainty over the impact of US tariff policy on the economy.

Crude Oil Prices: Investors will focus on the trajectory of crude oil prices, which have surged 7 percent in Brent Crude oil futures, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions from the critical Middle East region.

FPIs' Movement: Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have emerged as net sellers of Indian equities in the cash segment for the current month, continuing their selling spree amid geopolitical tensions and market valuations.

Macro Meter: Several key macroeconomic data, including India's May WPI Inflation prints and trade balance data, will be on investors' radar, along with news flows about trade deals between the US and its key trading partners.

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