Assad Era Comes to an End as Opposition Forces Seal Victory in Aleppo

Aleppo, Syria - In a stunning turn of events, opposition forces have claimed the major city of Aleppo, sending shockwaves throughout the Middle East. The swift capture of this key stronghold has paved the way for further advances into government-controlled areas, including Hama and Homs, before finally seizing the capital, Damascus, on December 7.

The 13-year civil war had been stagnant since a 2020 ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey, but reports suggest that President Bashar al-Assad has resigned, leaving Syria without its long-time leader. As an expert on Middle East security, I believe that the opposition's ability to maintain unity will be critical in navigating the transition to a post-Assad Syria.

Historically, the many opposition factions in Syria have been fractured by ideological differences and the interests of external backers, which remains true despite their current victory. Meanwhile, the rapid change in fortunes poses serious questions for those countries that have backed one side or the other in the conflict, including Iran, Russia, Turkey, the US, and even Israel.

Iran's grand strategy to preserve its "Shia Crescent" has failed, and Washington welcomes this diminished Russian and Iranian influence in Syria. However, concerns have been raised over a potential Islamist group taking power, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham spearheading much of the opposition gains. The US is hesitant to welcome such a development, given its perception of the group as terrorists.

The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces has emerged as a key player in Syria's transition. However, if American forces were to withdraw, they would face significant foreign policy headaches. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces stands alone against the increasingly hostile presence of Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

Turkey's new position on Syria is complex, with hopes to normalize relations and facilitate refugee return but facing challenges due to Erdogan's dismissal of such overtures and a potential deal with imprisoned Kurdistan Workers' Party leader Abdullah Öcalan.

The apparent end of the Assad era signifies a pivotal moment for Syria. Achieving a vision of inclusivity, pluralism, and stability will require the opposition factions to navigate immense challenges, including fostering unity among diverse groups, addressing grievances from years of conflict, and establishing governance structures that reflect the country's ethnic, religious, and political diversity.